The 2010 hurricane seaosn has come to an end and if you ask most folks in the U.S.... it was extremely quiet. The reality is though that 2010 was the 3rd most active season in history!!!
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Only tropical storm Bonnie... a meager 40mph storm impact S. Florida. All the other storms avoided U.S. landfall. So while we avoid the destruction of a 2004/2005 hurricane season.... it was just about as active!
In the chart below is a summary of Drs. Gray's and Klozbach's forecast and updates for this past season. You will notice they are pretty on the money.
While their #'s were on the money... why did so few storms impact the U.S. and how come seasonal forecasts do not predict landfall?
The reason is because of what seasonal forecasters use to predict the # of storms and what actually steers the storms are completely different. Seasonal forecasters use signals like water temperature anomalies, El Nino, La Nina, etc... things that are much larger than an individual storm or high pressure area. Kinda like this Fall... La Nina typically makes it warm and dry here in NW Florida, but that does not mean an individual storm system cause to set a recond low (like now) or see a big rainfall. The average for the Fall though will likely remain warm and dry when comapred to 'normal.'
With this hurricane season all the indicators were for an active season... record warm Atlantic water temps, La Nina, low shear over the tropics, but where individual systems were (Bermuda High, High pressure over Gulf Coast, Trofs off U.S. East Coast) caused storms to track farther west of us into Central America or re-curve well out into the Atlantic.
So we should be thankful for the gift we got this year and remember that in the end.... it only takes one storm for it to be an active hurricane.... just look at 1992 and Andrew.
The new seasonal forecast gets released this week and of course we will have it for you. One of the key things to look at will be the outlook for La Nina. La Nina typically means a busy hurricane season.
Although hurricane season is over... take a second to check out the tropical page of our website at WJHG.com.
Thanks as always for watching and do not hesitate to contact me with any questions you might have.