After a slower start to the 2014 hurricane season than recent years we finally got out first named storm on July 1st, Arthur.
Arthur will have no impact on our weather here in NWFL other than making it slightly less humid and keeping us pretty dry through the 4th of July. Arthur will bring near hurricane conditions to the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday and Friday.
Typically we see our first tropical storm by early-mid July although in recent years we have averaged a June storm each year. So long term Arthur is pretty typical although in recent years he might be considered a little late. Historically our first hurricane does not arrive until August 10th. Obviously Arthur is ahead of schedule in that respect.
The other day the experts at Colorado State released their latest projections for this hurricane season and kept the forecast the same. The reasoning was that while El Nino is weaker than they thought which might allow for more tropical activity,but the water temperatures in the Atlantic are cooler than average which might inhibit activity.
There are also a couple new things this year when it comes to the tropics. In the past NHC issued tropical outlooks with 48hr and 5 day development chances. Now they are showing the potential storms that could develop as well as where they might develop.
Another new product that has been issued for the first time with Arthur is a Potential Storm Surge Flooding map. This map will show the risk of storm surge flooding as a storm approaching landfall. this map will be a worst case scenario situation. This is the map for the Outer Banks for Arthur
Notice the map shows mainly 1-3' of surge with some areas seeing as much as 6' of surge potentially. Anyway, hopefully we won't need to show it, but we will if a storm threatens NWFL this year. We hope this will show you our viewers who will be at the highest risk of flooding from storm surge.
Anyway, the rest of the tropics are looking pretty quiet and the forecast for the 4th of July looks a lot quieter than last year for sure!
Remember, if you ever have any questions please do not hesitate to contact me.
Thanks for watching.
Chief Meteorologist, WJHG-TV