We all should be keeping a watchful eye on Isaac through the weekend. And even though it is at minimal tropical storm strength now, any system in the Caribbean Sea this time of the year can undergo rapid strengthening. Forces against Isaac strengthening include: mountains over Hispaniola and Cuba, lots of land near the circulation center, and basic storm disorganization(at this point).
The two global models we look at to provide some insight into a possible landfall zone are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both indicate the threat to the panhandle around Tuesday or Wednesday.
But, that is still 5 days away and a lot will change in the atmosphere between now and then. The basic feature we are waiting on is a larger upper trough to steer Isaac away. That trough comes in early next week, which would unfortunately steer the storm into Florida.
Until then, look around the house and check your normal food and emergency supplies. Make sure you are up to speed on evacuation routes and medications and the like. It is never a bad idea to go through this routine once a month anyway. Call it “good practice” in hopes we don’t do this for real early next week.