Severe weather has pummeled parts of the plains into south on the past 2 days... including 74 reports of tornadoes. That same storm system will move into Northwest Florida Wednesday night. Of course the big question for us is... will it bring severe weather to NW Florida?
The risk for severe weather as I type this (Tue Night) is high over TX, LA, AR, MS, and TN. Only a handful of times a year does the Storm Prediction Center issue a 'high risk' for severe storms.
That risk will diminish somewhat on Wednesday to a 'Moderate Risk' over parts of AL, TN, KY, and OH. Northwest Florida will see a 'Slight Risk' of severe weather. In this case we will see roughly a 15% chance of seeing severe weather in a 25x25 mile area.
The main risk for Northwest Florida will be damaging winds as a squall line pushes across our region. While an isolated tornado can not be ruled out... straight line winds will be the primary threat. Hail and rain will be low threats as well with roughly .50" of rain expected with this system. Certainly not enough to put a dent in this drought.
As for the timing of the storms... it still looks like after midnight. In all liklihood the most of the rain will fall while you are asleep. The only concerning part is if we do see severe weather it is preferrable that it occurs while folks are awake. Rest assurd the VIPIR7 Weather Team will be on top of things keeping you posted on the very latest.
Chief Meteorologist, WJHG-TV