Monday Forecast - Tropical Update

Good Monday morning everyone!

It's a quiet start so far on VIPIR 7 Doppler radar over the Panhandle. But we do have some showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf to watch as they'll be pushing in through the midday and afternoon today.

So be sure to grab the umbrella before heading out in the otherwise warm and muggy morning. We'll talk a bit more about where these showers and thunderstorms are coming from in your Tropical Update.

First, let's get you prepared for your day with current temperatures in the 70s and dew points in the sultry 70s as well. We won't see them warm up too much as clouds will be increasing throughout the morning as our rain chance begins to pick up by late morning.

Futurecast will depict the showers moving in along a band out of the Gulf. It looks as though we'll get two waves to move in today, one through the midday and afternoon, followed by another through the evening.

These showers and thunderstorms are developing off a broad area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula in the Southern Gulf.

So let's talk Tropics!

This broad area of low pressure, Invest 93-L, is developing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean and over the Yucatan Peninsula. But currently it is lacking a defined center of circulation.

However, once this low begins to move more to the north over the next 24hours and into the warmer waters of the Gulf, conditions should be conducive for some development. As of right now, it doesn't seem like it will strengthen to much more than a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm.

As to where it could be heading, there's an upper level low in the North-central to North-western Gulf which will more than likely draw Invest 93-L up into the Northern Gulf. At the same time, steering winds from the south associated with the Bermuda High in the Western Atlantic will expand over the Florida Peninsula and help nudge this system up into the Northern Gulf Coast as well. There is still uncertainty, however, into where it will head in the Northern Gulf. There's some model agreement this morning on the center of circulation passing to our west, somewhere between New Orleans, LA to Galveston, TX.

But due to the moisture rich environment expected to be on the east side of this system, this would lead toward the chance of a swath of heavy rains of 3-8", and locally higher amounts, to develop a few hundred miles east of the storms center. That swath of heavy rain could possibly set up over the Florida Panhandle, if the storm where to make a more Central landfall in the Northern Gulf Coast, say Louisiana or Mississippi.

Due to the uncertainty in track at this point, mainly because we don't have a defined surface center of circulation, there isn't much confidence yet as to where the heavy band of rain will set up. So, rain chances will be high over the next couple days, but keep in mind they are very dependent on the above mentioned track.

Bottom Line...
For today, skies turn mostly cloudy with scattered showers and some thunderstorms likely through the midday. Highs today will reach the low to mid 80s.

Potential heavy rains exist in your VIPIR 7 Day forecast, but they will focus over the next several days based on where the potential tropical system tracks in the Gulf. Stay tuned as confidence in the track should improve over the next 24hrs.