Tropical development possible in the Northwestern Caribbean

PANAMA CITY BEACH, Fla. (WJHG) - As of Sunday morning, a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean is showing signs of getting better organized. Hurricane hunters are planning to investigate the system Sunday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models don't have it becoming a hurricane at this point.

On the other hand, models don't have a good handle on where it'll go, and how much rain we get for the upcoming week ultimately depends on this system. Solutions range from southern Texas and Mexico to the Florida Big Bend or Nature Coast.

The main concerns with this system will be heavy rain/flooding.

The GFS American Model has been more consistent in moving this system due north, which would give us more tropical moisture and perhaps localized flooding. The European and North American Model have been more consistent suggesting the storm will stay to our south/west, which would mean less rain.

One of these solutions will be right, but at this point, we don't know which so stay tuned to the Vipir Weather Team. This is why we emphasize the importance of preparing for hurricane season.

Another tropical wave east of the Caribbean islands could develop this week, too, but we have plenty of time to watch that one.


We're watching this tropical disturbance, Invest 93L, closely as it appears to be getting organized. It's likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Models take it just about any direction in the Gulf of Mexico but as a tropical storm not a hurricane.