000
WTNT32 KNHC 180242
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
 
...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN
MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 

000
WTNT22 KNHC 180242
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  88.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  88.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  88.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N  90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N  92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.2N  93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N  94.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N  96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N  98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N  88.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180243
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT
ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW 
CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25
KT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED
A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS
INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  AS THE
FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
MEXICO.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 16.7N  88.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/1200Z 17.2N  90.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0000Z 17.8N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 18.2N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z 18.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.8N  96.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  22/0000Z 18.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA