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Tropics

Erika Dissipates

Updated: 08/29/2015 - Erika is no longer a tropical storm, but the remnants could pose a flooding threat.

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 020517
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Fred, located several hundred miles northwest of the Cape
    Verde Islands.

    A weak surface trough, the remnants of Erika, has moved inland
    over the eastern portions of the Florida panhandle. Although
    redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is not expected, this system
    could still produce brief periods of locally heavy rainfall over
    portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia during the next
    day or so while it drifts northward and northeastward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

    A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
    on Thursday several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde
    Islands. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
    occur through the weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
    ...FRED MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 1 the center of FRED was located near 19.4, -29.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
  • Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 020241
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
    
    ...FRED MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE
    CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.4N 29.1W
    ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
    located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 29.1 West. Fred is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
    forward speed during the next couple of days.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred is expected
    to weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday night or Thursday.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 020241
    TCMAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  29.1W AT 02/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  29.1W AT 02/0300Z
    AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  28.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N  30.3W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.4N  31.8W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N  33.3W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N  34.9W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N  38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  29.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 020241
    TCDAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015
    
    The deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during
    the past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed
    to the west of the convection.  An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC
    probed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds
    near the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45
    kt.
    
    The initial motion estimate is now 295/11.  There is no change to
    the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory.  Fred
    should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low-
    to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3
    days.  Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to
    weaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.  This
    evolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally
    northwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance
    since the last advisory.  Based on this, the new forecast track is
    an update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north
    of the consensus models.  After 72 hours, the track has been
    adjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the
    guidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and
    the previous forecast.
    
    The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred is over
    sea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter
    strong westerly vertical wind shear.  In addition, the cyclone is
    entraining a drier and more stable air mass.  This combination
    should cause weakening over the next several days.  The new
    intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it
    calls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and
    degenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  02/0300Z 19.4N  29.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  03/0000Z 20.4N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  03/1200Z 21.0N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
     48H  04/0000Z 21.4N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
     72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  06/0000Z 23.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  07/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    

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