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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 220529
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
    Tropical Depression Nine, located over the Bay of Campeche.

    A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
    Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
    disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
    could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
    day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
    mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
    subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by tonight, and
    development after that time is not likely. Additional information
    on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
    France.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
    header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
    header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch


  • Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
    ...DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.4, -92.3 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
  • Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 220832
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    ...DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE...
    ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.4N 92.3W
    ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST.  THE
    DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
    NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR
    TONIGHT.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
    TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
    
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
    OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2014
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 220831
    TCMAT4
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.3W AT 22/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.3W AT 22/0900Z
    AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.6W
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.4N  91.6W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N  90.6W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N  89.6W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.9N  88.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N  86.5W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N  84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N  82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  92.3W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 220839
    TCDAT4
    
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm
    activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently
    cloud tops have warmed.  Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation
    on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.
    The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt.  An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
    depression later this morning to check its intensity.
    
    The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but
    the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within
    the next 24 hours.  This should allow for some strengthening of the
    system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to
    reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.  After weakening due to its
    passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system
    and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent
    reintensification.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
    the previous one.  Since the system is quite small, it might be
    disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and
    weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC
    forecast.
    
    The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt.  A generally
    westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system
    across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean
    Sea during the forecast period.  The official track forecast is
    nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north
    of the multi-model consensus.  It should be noted that due to the
    possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in
    the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more
    uncertain by days 4 and 5.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  22/0900Z 19.4N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  22/1800Z 19.4N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  23/0600Z 19.3N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
     36H  23/1800Z 19.1N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     48H  24/0600Z 18.9N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     72H  25/0600Z 18.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
     96H  26/0600Z 18.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  27/0600Z 18.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
    

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