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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 010509
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
    Tropical Storm Bertha located just east of the Lesser Antilles.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha are issued under WMO
    header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
    Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and
    under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.


    $$
    Forecaster Avila

  • Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
    ...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 31 the center of BERTHA was located near 12.3, -55.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
    
    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 010259
    TCPAT3
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
    1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
    
    ...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
    ANTILLES...
    ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
    ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
    ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
    ST. LUCIA.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
    CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
    
    THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
    MORNING.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BARBADOS
    * ST. LUCIA
    * DOMINICA
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO
    * VIEQUES
    * CULEBRA
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
    INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
    OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
    FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
    EVENING.
    
    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS.
    
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
    WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
    DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
    THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
    SATURDAY.
    
    RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
    3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
    SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014
    
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 010257
    TCMAT3
    
    TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
    0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
    ST. LUCIA.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
    CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
    
    THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
    MORNING.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BARBADOS
    * ST. LUCIA
    * DOMINICA
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO
    * VIEQUES
    * CULEBRA
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
    AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 1
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 010321
    TCDAT3
    
    TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
    1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
    
    Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier
    this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low
    pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had
    surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center.
    Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has
    developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center,
    and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical
    cyclone.
    
    The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along
    the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the
    north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA
    Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent
    agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward
    motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn
    toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha
    is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion
    of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly
    north of the consensus model, TVCA.
    
    The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable
    for significant strengthening during the next two days due
    to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,
    the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
    upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
    resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight
    strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico
    and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone
    clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the
    SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less
    than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity
    forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  01/0300Z 12.3N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     96H  05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
    120H  06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
    

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