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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 190551
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
    western Azores.

    Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
    broad area of low pressure centered between west Africa and the
    Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
    over the next few days before upper-level winds are forecast to
    become less conducive by early next week. This low is expected to
    move slowly west-northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to
    portions of the Cape Verde Islands this weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

    A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off of the
    east coast of Florida over the weekend. This system has some
    potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while
    it moves northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
    the United States.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

  • Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.8, -38.5 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
  • Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 32
    Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 190851
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  32
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    ...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWER AND LOSING STRENGTH...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...39.8N 38.5W
    ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
    SOUTHEAST ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
    LATER TODAY.
    
    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.24 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    NONE.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 32
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 190850
    TCMAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    0900 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
    50 KT....... 50NE 100SE  80SW   0NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 160SE 150SW  70NW.
    12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 280SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N  38.5W AT 19/0900Z
    AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  38.9W
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 130SE  80SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW 240NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE   0SE 120SW 240NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N  38.5W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 32
    Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 190852
    TCDAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014
    
    Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less
    organized during the past several hours.  The low-level center is
    now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid-
    level circulation decoupled well to the southeast.  With the
    absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength
    quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little
    higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration
    of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data.  Edouard is unlikely to
    redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with
    strong shear.  Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will
    likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  Extratropical
    transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global
    models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing
    frontal features by that time.
    
    Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with
    initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt.   A continued eastward
    motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
    the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between
    the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast
    Atlantic Ocean.  The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous
    NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which
    results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/0900Z 39.8N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
     12H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     24H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     36H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     48H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    
    

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