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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 230500
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
    Tropical Depression Nine which has degenerated into a remnant low
    over the Yucatan peninsula.

    Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
    non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
    Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
    and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is not
    expected to due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
    development, this system is likely to produce heavy rainfall and
    locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
    Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
    days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

  • Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE (AT4/AL092014)
    ...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 18.9, -90.9 with movement ESE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
  • Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 230236
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    ...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
    ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W
    ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST.  THE
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH
    ...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL
    MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER LAND
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINFALL
    AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
  • Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 230235
    TCMAT4
    
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014
    
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  90.9W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT   5 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  90.9W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  91.2W
    
    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  90.9W
    
    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
    
    
  • Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 230236
    TCDAT4
    
    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
    1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
    
    Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
    between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
    evening.  Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
    maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
    pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast.  The
    system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
    convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
    declared a remnant low at this time.  The low is expected to weaken
    during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
    Peninsula.  If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
    dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
    The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
    call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.
    
    The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
    east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
    the next few days.  The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
    left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
    the multi-model consensus.
    
    Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
    directly related to this system.
    
    This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
    on this system.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  23/0300Z 18.9N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     12H  23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    
    

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