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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 021743
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

    A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
    late Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
    conducive for some development through the weekend while the system
    moves westward at 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
    header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
    header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

    $$
    Forecaster Terry

  • Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
    ...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.0, -97.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 022044
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    ...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.0N 97.0W
    ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
    ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST.  DOLLY IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
    AREA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER
    NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
    WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM
    IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.
    
    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.
    
    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
    INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
    TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
    SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL IS
    EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
    AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
    
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
    OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUE
    OVERNIGHT.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 022043
    TCMAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  97.0W AT 02/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  97.0W AT 02/2100Z
    AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  96.5W
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  97.0W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 022045
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
    least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
    the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
    and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
    SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
    Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
    no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
    inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
    northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
    indicated by the NHC forecast.
    
    With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
    the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
    complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
    remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
    northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
    westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
    forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
    This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.
    
    The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
    precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
    locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
    mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
    continue even after the center moves inland.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
     24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
     48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
    

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