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Tropics

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 280537
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Erika, located south of Puerto Rico.

    A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the west coast of
    Africa on Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape
    Verde Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be
    possible through the middle of next week while the system moves
    westward at 10 to 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 17.3, -66.6 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 13A
    Issued at 200 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 280546
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    200 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
    RICO...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.3N 66.6W
    ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Puerto Rico
    * Vieques
    * Culebra
    * U.S. Virgin Islands
    * British Virgin Islands
    * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
    and southward to Isla Saona
    * Haiti
    * Southeastern Bahamas
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * St. Martin
    * St. Barthelemy
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
    * Central Bahamas
    
    Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
    progress of Erika.
    
    For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
    including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
    office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
    United States, please monitor products issued by your national
    meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
    located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika is
    moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
    west-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motion
    is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
    center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several
    hours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic later
    today.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
    from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph
    (78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at Yabucoa
    Harbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of
    47 mph (76 km/h).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the Virgin
    Islands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the next
    several hours. These conditions should spread westward across
    portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
    the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by late
    Saturday.
    
    RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
    of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
    portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
    the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
    the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.  These rains could cause
    life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 280253
    TCMAT5
     
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
     
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
     
    NONE.
     
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO
    * VIEQUES
    * CULEBRA
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
    AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * ST. MARTIN
    * ST. BARTHELEMY
     
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
    * CENTRAL BAHAMAS
     
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  65.3W AT 28/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  65.3W AT 28/0300Z
    AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  64.7W
     
    FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N  67.4W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N  70.2W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N  73.2W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N  75.5W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N  79.0W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N  80.2W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N  80.7W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  65.3W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 280304
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015
    
    The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
    appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
    gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
    producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
    hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
    position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
    organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
    to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
    of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
    surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
    pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
    not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
    during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
    moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
    the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
    flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
    has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
    close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.
    
    The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
    degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
    should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
    several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
    subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
    and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
    southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
    northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
    guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
    tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
    moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
    latter portion of the forecast period.  There is unusually high
    uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
    the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
    land for this to occur.
    
    The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
    very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
    tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
    These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  65.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  28/1200Z 18.2N  67.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  29/0000Z 19.7N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  29/1200Z 21.1N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
     48H  30/0000Z 22.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  31/0000Z 25.2N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
     96H  01/0000Z 27.3N  80.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
    120H  02/0000Z 29.5N  80.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    

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