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Tropics

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 290557
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Erika, located between Haiti and Cuba.

    Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with
    a broad area of low pressure located just west of the coast of west
    Africa. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
    few days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
    toward the Cape Verde Islands at about 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
    ...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN HAITI... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 the center of ERIKA was located near 19.1, -75.1 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 290854
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    ...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS IN
    HAITI...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.1N 75.1W
    ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Dominican Republic
    * Haiti
    * Southeastern Bahamas
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * Central Bahamas
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Northwestern Bahamas
    * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
    Holguin, and Guantanamo
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area.
    
    Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
    southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
    progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed
    for these areas later today.
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
    located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 75.1 West. Erika is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
    toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on
    Sunday. On the forecast track the center of Erika will move near
    over portions of eastern Cuba later today and move across central
    Cuba tonight.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Erika is expected to weaken to a tropical depression today as it
    moves over land. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate
    into a trough of low pressure today while it moves over the high
    terrain of eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
    of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
    portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through
    Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
    mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected
    to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and
    Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas
    through Sunday.
    
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions across Haiti will gradually
    subside this morning, and will continue in portions of the Turks
    and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next few
    hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba
    today.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 290851
    TCMAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    * HAITI
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
    HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED
    FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  75.1W AT 29/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  75.1W AT 29/0900Z
    AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  74.4W
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N  77.5W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.3N  80.3W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N  82.1W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N  84.0W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N  84.5W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N  84.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  75.1W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 18
    Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 290854
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
    
    Erika remains very disorganized with the deep convection still
    displaced well east and southeast of the apparent center. The
    initial intensity has been set at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
    classification from TAFB, and these winds are likely occurring well
    east and northeast of the center. Erika will have to contend with
    land interaction and strong shear for the next day or so, which
    should result in the cyclone weakening to a depression later today,
    if not dissipating entirely. Assuming Erika survives the next 24
    hours, some restrengthening is possible over the Gulf of Mexico in a
    less hostile environment. The low-confidence NHC intensity forecast
    is similar to the previous one and below the latest intensity
    consensus.
    
    The disorganized center of Erika has been difficult to locate, but
    my best estimate of the initial motion is 290/17, with the center
    moving a little to the left of the previous forecast track. Erika
    should gradually turn toward the northwest and decelerate during the
    next 36 to 48 hours as it moves around the edge of the subtropical
    ridge. After that time a northward motion at an even slower forward
    speed is expected. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the left,
    especially during the first 48 hours, due to the initial position
    and motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after
    that time. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus
    through 48 hours and is between the consensus and the GFS model
    after that time. Given the uncertainty in the initial position and
    motion, and whether Erika even has a closed center, confidence in
    the details of the track forecast remains low.
    
    The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very
    heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These
    rains could produce flash floods and mudslides.
    
    Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical
    storm watch for portions of southern Florida following typical
    timelines, we have elected to wait until later today to see if the
    circulation of Erika has survived its interaction with Hispaniola.
    An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating
    Erika later this morning. There is a significant chance that no
    watches or warnings for Florida will be required.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  29/0900Z 19.1N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  29/1800Z 20.3N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  30/0600Z 22.3N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     36H  30/1800Z 24.0N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
     48H  31/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     72H  01/0600Z 27.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     96H  02/0600Z 29.5N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
    120H  03/0600Z 31.0N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
    
    

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