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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 272321
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

    Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low
    pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently limited.
    However, some development of this system is still possible before it
    moves inland over south Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    A tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles continues to
    produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
    expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with
    little development during the next few days. However, environmental
    conditions could become favorable for some development by early next
    week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
    on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
    thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
    the eastern Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

  • Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
    ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 34.1, -69.9 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014
    
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 280232
    TCPAT4
    
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
    1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014
    
    ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
    TOMORROW MORNING...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...34.1N 69.9W
    ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BERMUDA
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST.  CRISTOBAL
    IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
    MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL TO
    THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA THURSDAY MORNING.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    SO...AND CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
    CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.
    
    CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND
    PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
    LONG ISLAND...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    TOMORROW.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
    AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
    PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
    
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
    TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 18
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014
    
    000
    WTNT24 KNHC 280231
    TCMAT4
    
    HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
    0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BERMUDA
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  69.9W AT 28/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  17 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
    64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
    50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 180SE  60SW  70NW.
    12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 190SW 220NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  69.9W AT 28/0300Z
    AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  70.7W
    
    FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.1N  66.6W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  30NW.
    34 KT...180NE 200SE  80SW  70NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.3N  59.6W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 130SE  80SW  30NW.
    34 KT...210NE 250SE 130SW  80NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.4N  51.5W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 130SE  90SW  60NW.
    34 KT...210NE 260SE 180SW 120NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
    34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 56.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    50 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 140NW.
    34 KT...220NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...ABSORBED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N  69.9W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
    
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 18
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014
    
    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 280232
    TCDAT4
    
    HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
    1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014
    
    Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the
    estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg
    C.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a
    Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The symmetric appearance of the cloud
    pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very
    strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant
    increase in shear in 18-24 hours.  The hurricane could strengthen
    some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to
    baroclinic processes.  The official intensity forecast is close to
    the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above
    it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred
    by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully
    embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal
    is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to
    hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.
    
    The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the
    motion estimate is 050/17.  The track forecast is unchanged from
    the previous advisory.  Cristobal is currently rounding the
    northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the
    west-central Atlantic.  A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the
    northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its
    post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the
    higher-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is in good
    agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA.
    
    The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been
    coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  28/0300Z 34.1N  69.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
     12H  28/1200Z 36.1N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
     24H  29/0000Z 39.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
     36H  29/1200Z 43.4N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
     48H  30/0000Z 47.5N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  31/0000Z 56.0N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  01/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  02/0000Z...ABSORBED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
    

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