Tropics

Weather Radar Gets Major Improvements

Updated: 01/08/2013 - The nearest National Weather radar in Eglin, FL will be offline for the next week while the site undergoes upgrades.

Posted: 10/25/2012 - State officials are warning residents and visitors to beware rough surf and windy conditions stirred up by Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean.

Updated: 10/24/2012 - Forecasters have issued tropical storm warnings and watches for parts of the southeastern coast of Florida and Keys ahead of Hurricane Sandy that is pounding Jamaica.

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Posted: 08/27/2012 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

Posted: 08/26/2012 - As you wake up this Sunday morning there are some major changes in the track of Isaac.

Updated: 08/25/2012 - Local Weather Statement on Tropical Storm Isaac about what and when we can expect various aspects of the storm.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of TWO was located near 19.2, -93.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 7A
Issued at 100 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013


000
WTNT32 KNHC 190558
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
100 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 93.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 7
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013


000
WTNT22 KNHC 190247
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  92.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  92.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.2N  94.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N  95.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N  96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  92.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013


000
WTNT42 KNHC 190248
TCDAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE 
DEPRESSION HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE THIS EVENING.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 25 KT. 

THE DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE AND
BEND WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. 
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. 
 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...THE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. IN FACT...BASED ON THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST AND TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT POSSIBILITY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. 
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 18.9N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 19.2N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 19.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 19.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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