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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 152321
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Edouard, located a little less than 600 miles east-southeast of
    Bermuda.

    A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
    Wednesday, and produce an area of low pressure over the far
    eastern Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for some development
    of this system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

  • Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 29.0, -56.9 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 160237
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    ...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
    ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.0N 56.9W
    ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EDOUARD IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
    NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED BY TUESDAY.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    SO...AND EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
    TUESDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE ON WEDNESDAY.
    
    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    NONE.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
    
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 160237
    TCMAT1
     
    HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  56.9W AT 16/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
    64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
    50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.
    12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  56.9W AT 16/0300Z
    AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  56.6W
     
    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
    50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
    34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W
    MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
    50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
    34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W
    MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
    50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.
    34 KT...160NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W
    MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
    34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
    34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 120NW.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N  56.9W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
     
     
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 160240
    TCDAT1
    
    HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014
    
    Edouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become
    somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep
    convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The
    intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may
    have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed
    by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity
    estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
    UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is
    used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.
    
    Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately
    strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between
    a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is
    forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.
    Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors
    should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These
    favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the
    cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.
    Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in
    southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of
    the cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a
    baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of
    extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become
    interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather
    system.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96
    hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the
    northeastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as
    the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity
    guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory
    after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.
    
    Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial
    motion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in
    excellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to
    turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery
    of a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and
    then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is
    captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north
    Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly
    shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the
    flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast
    Atlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on
    this cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track
    forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on
    the far right side of the guidance envelope.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
     12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
     24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
     36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
     48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
     72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
     96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    
    $$
    Forecaster Kimberlain
    
    
    

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