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Tropics

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 282334
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Erika, located inland over Haiti.

    A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
    about to move off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental
    conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
    tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
    system moves west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at
    about 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

    $$
    Forecaster Kimberlain
  • Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
    ...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 the center of ERIKA was located near 18.3, -72.0 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 16A
    Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 290011
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    ...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.3N 72.0W
    ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Dominican Republic
    * Haiti
    * Southeastern Bahamas
    * Turks and Caicos Islands
    * Central Bahamas
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Northwestern Bahamas
    * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
    Holguin, and Guantanamo
    
    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.
    
    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
    
    Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
    southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
    progress of Erika.  Additional watches and warnings could be
    needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of
    Hispaniola.
    
    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
    the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
    meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over
    Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm
    Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West.
    Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).  A turn
    toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with
    this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through
    Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over
    western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be near
    the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (85 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on
    Saturday, but there is a good possibility that Erika could
    even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is
    moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
    to the east of the center.  Barahona in the western portion of
    the Dominican Republic is reporting wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from
    the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican
    Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are
    expected to spread across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
    the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on
    Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba
    on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.
    
    RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
    of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
    portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
    Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas
    through Saturday.  An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in
    Puerto Rico.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
    and mud slides.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Avila
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 16
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 282054
    TCMAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    * HAITI
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS,
    HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
    
    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF ERIKA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
    NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTER ERIKA MOVES OFF OF
    HISPANIOLA.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  71.2W AT 28/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
    34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  71.2W AT 28/2100Z
    AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  70.4W
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.3N  76.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N  79.3W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N  81.0W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N  82.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N  82.5W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  71.2W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 16
    Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 282055
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
    500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
    
    The low-level center of Erika continues to be be located west of
    the convection due to the impact of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical
    wind shear.  Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation has
    been losing definition during the day and it is now barely
    closed, at best.  However, clusters of strong convection continue in
    the eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt
    on the premise that the strong winds observed earlier are still
    present. The central pressure of 1009 mb is based on observations
    from the Dominican Republic.
    
    Erika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and
    the initial motion is 280/17.  There is no change to the forecast
    philosophy from the previous advisory.  A generally west-
    northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next 48
    hours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the
    subtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward
    turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves
    between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of
    Mexico.  While the track guidance is generally in good agreement, it
    should be noted that the guidance has been consistently forecasting
    a west-northwestward turn that has so far failed to occur.  On the
    other hand, there is still a chance for a center to re-form
    farther to the north during the passage over Hispaniola.  So while
    the forecast track has been shifted west of the previous advisory,
    it still lies near the northern edge of the guidance envelope for
    the first 48 hours to maintain some continuity with the previous
    forecast. Additional adjustments may be necessary depending on how
    Erika evolves during the next 12-18 hours.
    
    The forecast intensity has been significantly changed to show a
    much weaker cyclone, with Erika now forecast to become a
    tropical depression in about 24 hours, followed by some slight
    intensification at 48 and 72 hours.  This represents a compromise
    between two scenarios.  The first is the increasing likelihood that
    Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during the passage over
    Hispaniola, a scenario supported by the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF
    models. The second acknowledges that the shear is still expected to
    subside after 36 hours and we're are not quite prepared to rule out
    tropical storm impacts in Florida.  The SHIPS and LGEM support this
    possibility.
    
    The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very
    heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti
    today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud
    slides.
    
    Although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical
    storm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typical
    timelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left of
    Erika after it passes Hispaniola.  There is a significant chance
    that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  28/2100Z 17.9N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     12H  29/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  29/1800Z 21.3N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     36H  30/0600Z 22.7N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
     48H  30/1800Z 24.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     72H  31/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
     96H  01/1800Z 29.0N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
    120H  02/1800Z 31.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    

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