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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 171719
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Edouard, located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.

    A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the west
    coast of Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow
    development of this system is possible over the next several days
    while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
    about 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

  • Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of EDOUARD was located near 37.8, -51.2 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 172035
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  26
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
    
    ...EDOUARD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...37.8N 51.2W
    ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EDOUARD IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN
    TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW...WITH A TURN TOWARD
    THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED BY
    LATE FRIDAY.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS AND EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
    THURSDAY...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE FRIDAY.
    
    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
    MILES...370 KM.
    
    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
    THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA BEGINNING TODAY.  THESE
    SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
    ALONG MOST OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 172034
    TCMAT1
    
    HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N  51.2W AT 17/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  23 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
    EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
    64 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
    50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW  50NW.
    34 KT.......150NE 200SE 150SW  90NW.
    12 FT SEAS..230NE 310SE 270SW 350NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N  51.2W AT 17/2100Z
    AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N  52.4W
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W
    MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
    64 KT... 35NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 110SE  80SW  40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
    34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW  90NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N  51.2W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    
    
    
    
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 26
    Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 172035
    TCDAT1
    
    HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
    500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014
    
    An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a
    maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
    71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite
    appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming
    convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye.  The initial intensity
    is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the
    higher satellite classifications.  A combination of cooling waters
    and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening
    trend throughout the 120-hour period.  Post-tropical transition is
    indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard
    moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected
    to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of
    the global models.
    
    Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23.  A gradual
    turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward
    speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered
    by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.
    Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days
    while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.
    Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track
    guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,
    apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from
    the mid-level northerly flow.  Consequently, the latest forecast is
    shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably
    won't be much of Edouard by that point.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  17/2100Z 37.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
     12H  18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
     24H  18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     72H  20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     96H  21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    
    
    

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