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Tropics

Erika Dissipates

Updated: 08/29/2015 - Erika is no longer a tropical storm, but the remnants could pose a flooding threat.

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 312340
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Fred, located near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Kimberlain
  • Summary for Hurricane FRED (AT1/AL062015)
    ...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.4, -25.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
  • Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 8A
    Issued at 800 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 312336
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    800 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
    
    ...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.4N 25.0W
    ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
    
    None.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Cape Verde Islands
    
    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
    near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 25.0 West.  Fred is moving
    toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
    expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the west-
    northwest is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center
    will be moving away from the Cape Verde Islands.
    
    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
    with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
    days.
    
    Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
    center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
    (130 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND:  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions will continue over
    portions of the Cape Verde Islands for the next few hours.  Wind
    speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are
    often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and
    in some elevated locations can be even greater.
    
    STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
    in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
    coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
    
    RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
    4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
    maximum amounts of 10 inches.  These rains are likely to produce
    life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
    
    
  • Hurricane FRED Forecast Advisory Number 8
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 312040
    TCMAT1
    
    HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  24.6W AT 31/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
    64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  75SW  90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  24.6W AT 31/2100Z
    AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  24.2W
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N  25.9W
    MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
    64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N  27.7W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.1N  29.3W
    MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.8N  31.0W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N  34.0W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N  37.5W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  24.6W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    
    
  • Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion Number 8
    Issued at 500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 312041
    TCDAT1
    
    HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
    
    Fred likely peaked in intensity this morning.  Microwave data
    received since the previous advisory shows that the eye has become
    open over the southern semicircle, however, the center remains
    embedded in an area of cloud top temperatures below -70C.  Although
    Dvorak T-numbers have changed little since the previous advisory,
    the initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt, based on the
    degraded inner-core structure.  The environment ahead of Fred is
    expected to become increasingly hostile with marginal sea surface
    temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable
    thermodynamic conditions.  As a result, steady weakening is
    predicted.  Since Fred is a small tropical cyclone, it is likely to
    succumb to the shear faster than indicated by the statistical
    guidance, and the NHC forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS/LGEM
    models.  Despite warmer SSTs along the forecast track at days 4 and
    5, the shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Fred to
    become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
    
    The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt.  The center of Fred
    will pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through
    early tonight.  A turn toward the west-northwestward is expected on
    Tuesday as the subtropical ridge to the north of Fred builds
    westward.  A west-northwestward heading should then continue during
    the remainder of the forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF models
    remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the NHC
    forecast is near a consensus of these typically reliable models.
    The NHC forecast at the long-range leans a bit closer to the ECMWF,
    which shows a weaker Fred moving more westward.
    
    Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
    product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
    Cape Verde Islands.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  31/2100Z 17.2N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
     12H  01/0600Z 18.2N  25.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
     24H  01/1800Z 19.2N  27.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  02/0600Z 20.1N  29.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
     48H  02/1800Z 20.8N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  03/1800Z 22.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
     96H  04/1800Z 23.2N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
    120H  05/1800Z 25.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    
    

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