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Tropics

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

Hurlburt Field - Hurricane Condition 3

Posted: 08/26/2012 - Because of Tropical Storm Isaac Hurlburt Field ecacuated a majority of its planes out of the area and send thgem to Little Rock Air Force Base, Ark

Panama City Westward Remains Under Hurricane Watch

Posted: 08/26/2012 - The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has shifted westward in the last 18 hours, with a focus more on the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana coasts.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 020550
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
    upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
    of Mexico.

    An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
    and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
    expected to be conducive for additional development through the
    weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
    header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
    header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

  • Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
    ...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 23.0, -95.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 3A
    Issued at 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 021143
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    700 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    ...DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.0N 95.7W
    ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    NONE.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. DOLLY IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK... THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
    MORNING.
    
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
    DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.
    
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
    185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
    
    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
    3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
    SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
    POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
    TERRAIN.
    
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
    AREA BY TONIGHT.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 020844
    TCMAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
    
    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.
    
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO
    
    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
    34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
    AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W
    
    FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    
    
    
    
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 020845
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
    400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014
    
    An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
    cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
    kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
    kt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
    indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
    on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
    making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
    hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
    position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.
    
    The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
    based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
    conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
    of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
    unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
    expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
    skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
    is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
    United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
    expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
    over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
    NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
    roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.
    
    About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
    Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
    well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
    However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
    southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
    about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
    strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.
    
    The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
    two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
    field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
    the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
    Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
    hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
    storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
    additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
    at this time.
    
    The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
    rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
    over portions of eastern Mexico.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
     24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
     48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
    

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