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Tropics

Erika Dissipates

Updated: 08/29/2015 - Erika is no longer a tropical storm, but the remnants could pose a flooding threat.

2014 Hurricane Season Ends Quietly

Updated: 12/01/2014 - Well we certainly dodged another bullet here in Northwest Florida when it comes to avoiding a tropical system.
Video

Spawn of Isaac Moves into the Gulf

Posted: 09/06/2012 - A remnant of Hurricane Isaac, drawn back to the Gulf of Mexico after an odyssey through the Midwest, hovered Wednesday off the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac Video Blog

Updated: 06/09/2014 - Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Gulf of Mexico and continues to churn toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Walton County Prepares

Updated: 08/28/2012 - As Isaac continues to track farther to the west, Walton County's status has been dropped from a hurricane watch to a tropical storm warning. The Walton County Sheriff's Emergency Operations Center is currently operating at a level one.

More Tropics

The Tropics

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 030539
    TWOAT

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
    Cape Verde Islands.

    A well-organized tropical wave will move off of the west coast of
    Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands
    later today. Conditions appear conducive for gradual development
    over the weekend and into early next week as the system moves
    generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
    ...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 20.6, -32.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
  • Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015
    
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 030235
    TCPAT1
    
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015
    
    ...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.6N 32.7W
    ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
    located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fred is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
    general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of
    days.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, and it is expected
    to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and become a
    post-tropical low by Thursday night.
    
    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015
    
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 030234
    TCMAT1
     
    TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015
     
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     
    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  32.7W AT 03/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
     
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
     
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
    34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
     
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  32.7W AT 03/0300Z
    AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  32.3W
     
    FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W
    MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
     
    FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W
    MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
     
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
     
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  32.7W
     
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
     
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
     
     
    
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015
    
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 030235
    TCDAT1
    
    TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
    1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015
    
    The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the
    previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C
    seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.
    Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
    advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
    
    There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the
    forecast track since the last advisory.  Fred should move
    west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
    the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
    the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between
    the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.
    The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance
    envelope.
    
    Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and
    the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72
    hours.  This, in combination with dry air entraining into the
    cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36
    hours, if not earlier.  After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are
    expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,
    decreasing shear, and increasing moisture.  In theory, this could
    allow the system to regenerate.  However, while the dynamical
    models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of
    them show any significant intensification in the more favorable
    environment.  Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a
    weak remnant low through 120 hours.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  03/0300Z 20.6N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
     36H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
    

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