Updated Hurricane Outlook

PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - On Thursday the experts at Colorado State issued their updated hurricane season forecast. The forecast remains the same from their June update which called for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is well above the seasonal norms of 14/7/3.

Hurricane expert. Dr. Philip Klotzbach, sited several reasons for the active forecast. Among those are a robust West African monsoon which leads to active moisture waves coming off Africa as well as more conducive upper level winds.

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One reason for active Atlantic #hurricane seasonal forecast from CSU is due to robust West African monsoon so far. Stronger easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with active monsoon pic.twitter.com/eexgk0d8xV
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2022

We are likely to see La Nina continue through the peak months of hurricane season. La Nina favors tropical activity in the Atlantic and generally means more favorable upper level winds.

One reason for active CSU Atlantic #hurricane season forecast is odds of #ElNino this summer/fall are very low. Tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has weak #LaNina conditions. El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. pic.twitter.com/4837r74gnR
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2022

Also, Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic basin are running warmer than average and this typically means we will see a more active season when these values are present in the month of July.

Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are generally warmer than normal, while far eastern subtropical Atlantic remains warmer than normal. Current SST pattern mostly resembles July active Atlantic #hurricane season pattern. pic.twitter.com/gi4lqACODd
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2022

So far we have seen 3 named storms this season. By July 7th on average we see 1 named storm. The forecast numbers released Thursday take into account the 3 tropical storms we have already seen so for the rest of the season we can expect to see 17 more named storms.