Are the tropics about to heat up?
The quiet pattern may be coming to an end
PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - As of August 3rd we have seen 3 named storms in the Atlantic basin. That is exactly what we would expect in a typical year on this date. While things have been quiet since early July, that does not mean that will continue as we march into the peak of hurricane season. In the below graphics you can see the quiet weather pattern is expected to continue for the next 10 days according to the European model. As we extend that out to the 14 day European Ensembles you can start to see some indications of more activity. It is the 30 day ensemble forecast that really shows an uptick in storm formation. One of the reasons why we are expecting that is we are expecting a positive/wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Atlantic basin. During this phase we usually see an uptick in tropical activity. Keep in mind right now one of the limiting factors right now in the Atlantic is dry air and shear. The MJO positive phase would eliminate those limiting factors. Also, September 10th is the peak of hurricane season and we are rapidly heading toward that peak by the end of the month.
On Thursday (4th) both NOAA and Colorado State will issue updates to their 2022 forecasts. It will be interesting to see if the quiet recent period has any impact on their overall numbers.
So, buckle up... we still have 119 days left in hurricane season and we are headed to the climatological peak. No matter how busy it gets though remember that it only takes one storm to have a bag hurricane season.
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