Final 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts

PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - Colorado State and NOAA have adjusted their forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season showing a small decrease in activity. Overall conditions remain favorable for an above average year.

Colorado State’s forecast has reduced the total number of storms from the previous season forecast by two. They’ve dropped the number of hurricanes to develop by two, and have reduced the number of major hurricanes forecast to develop by one. This slight decrease in activity is also seen from NOAA’s final numbers as well. The chances of an above normal season has decreased from 65% earlier this year to 60% and the likelihood of an average season has risen to 30%.

There are several factors still in place for an active year across the Atlantic Basin. La Niña is expected to continue which brings lower wind shear. Trade winds across the Atlantic are down. The Western African Monsoon trough is active. Sea surface temperatures remain above average.

Keep in mind that 90% of the named storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Season occur between the months of August and October.

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