Sunday Evening Forecast

Ian forecast shifts east, lots of uncertainty remains
Ian forecasted to intensify into major hurricane as track remains uncertain
Published: Jun. 10, 2022 at 7:00 PM CDT|Updated: Sep. 25, 2022 at 6:05 PM CDT
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PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - The most recent GFS model run continued to trend towards the Euro - a trend in the right direction for Northwest Florida.

While plenty of uncertainty remains, an improved model consensus is a sign that we are finally getting a better understanding for where Ian might go, and what impacts the storm might have.

As of 5:30pm CDT Sunday, Ian sits in the Northwestern Caribbean with wind speeds of about 45mph and fairly muted shower and thunderstorm activity. Tropical Storm Ian has a good chance of becoming Hurricane Ian as it moves northward into more favorable conditions. The area immediately north and west of it’s position has some of the highest tropical cyclone heat potential in the basin. The ingredients available will provide plenty of fuel for intensification. Once Ian intensifies, models will get a better grasp on it’s future and confidence will grow regarding it’s potential track.

The National Hurricane Center forecast track remains pointed at the Big Bend region of Florida, but the majority of the Panhandle and the Peninsula remain underneath the forecast cone as uncertainty continues. Remember, any location inside the cone has an equal chance of receiving the eye of the storm, so we aren’t out of the clear despite the encouraging trends in the model.

The key thing to understand right now is how uncertain the track forecast is. There’s a chance Ian leans towards landfall along the coast of Northwest Florida, or the storm could have minimal impacts on the area with a track well off to our east. We’ll have a better idea once Tropical Storm Ian organizes.

For now, weather in the Panhandle is both pleasant and quiet. Expect clear skies and temps in the upper 60′s overnight tonight. Tomorrow, we’ll get back to the 90-degree mark under mostly-sunny skies. A cold front will traverse the area tomorrow as well, bringing cooler, more bearable weather to the Panhandle Tuesday.

Get all the details on the forecast in the WJHG.com Weather Webcast.

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