Monday Forecast & Hurricane Ian Update

PANAMA CITY, Fla. (WJHG/WECP) - Good Monday morning everyone!

It’s a quiet start over NWFL this morning on satellite and radar. We’ll see plenty of sunshine head our way today, but mixed with a few clouds as a cold front passes through. It won’t bring much of a rain chance, however, we should see a nice change of temperatures and feels over the next few days. And it will help some in deflecting Ian to our east.

Ian became a Category 1 Hurricane at 4amCDT Monday morning. — Ian became a Category 1 Hurricane at 4amCDT Monday morning.(WJHG)

Ian has become a hurricane this morning and is expected to rapidly intensify today in warm waters south of Cuba. We’ll see this system cross over Cuba tonight and into tomorrow morning likely reaching major hurricane status as it does so.

An unusually high amount of uncertainty still resides with Ian's track past Wednesday. — An unusually high amount of uncertainty still resides with Ian's track past Wednesday.(WJHG)

Early Monday morning GFS and ECMWF models for where system may be on this coming Thursday. — Early Monday morning GFS and ECMWF models for where system may be on this coming Thursday.(WJHG)

As the system drifts further north, today’s cold front will start to act on the system. Wind shear from the northwest and the drier air brought on by the front will cause Ian to slow down some and weaken the system at the same time.

The system will be close to the Florida Peninsula Gulf Coast by Wednesday near the . Uncertainty in the longer range track still exists as weaker steering flow develops past Wednesday across the Southeastern US and Gulf. But a general track to the north may continue if Ian does not make landfall in the Florida Peninsula before then.

Further weakening, due to dry air would still be likely if Ian continues a northerly track toward the Big Bend.

Tropical Storm or low end hurricane force conditions could be felt along the Forgotten Coast by late Thursday into Friday if Ian continues to trek north toward the Big Bend.

Probability of seeing tropical storm force winds from Ian later this week. — Probability of seeing tropical storm force winds from Ian later this week.(WJHG)

Breezy to windy conditions with some showers and storms would be felt across the rest of NWFL late Thursday into Friday.

For today, mostly to partly sunny skies with hot and humid highs in the low 90s.

Your 7 Day Forecast has some improvements on the heat and humidity heading into the midweek as a dry cold front passes through late in the day today.

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