Thursday and Hurricane Matthew Forecast

Published: Oct. 6, 2016 at 8:40 AM CDT
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Good Thursday morning everyone!

It's a quiet start on VIPIR 7 Doppler radar however we are cloudy.

Clouds will be an issue through the first half of the day, but we're not expecting any rain for your day.

Under the clouds temps were warm in the 70s starting off your morning. And because of those clouds it'll be a slow warm up today to the mid 80s this afternoon.

But it should feel pretty nice outside with dew points only in the sticky range on your Comfort Index. Winds will also help to make it feel comfy outside as they'll be slightly breezy from the northwest.

Overcast skies will gradual decrease to partly sunny in the afternoon today, and we'll have another similar day in store for tomorrow.

Bottom Line...

For Today, cloudy in the morning with decreasing clouds into the afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid 80s. Your VIPIR 7 Day Forecast will have another similar day tomorrow for the Panhandle before our weekend shapes up quite nicely.

From the National Hurricane Center...

Matthew is a Category 3 Hurricane with winds of 125mph. Movement is to the northwest at 12mph and pressure is currently at 940mb and falling.

The satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly

overnight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple

of hours. The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric

central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. An Air

Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter that just flew through the

center reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR

winds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is

down about 18 mb from last evening. Using a blend of the

flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at

110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued

strengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely

dangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern

Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. After 24 hours,

land interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the

period increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in

winds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the

first 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is

close to the consensus thereafter.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving

northwestward or 320/10 kt. Matthew is expected to move around

the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to

gradually retreat eastward during the next day or two. This

pattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern

Bahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the east coast

of Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly

clustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus

of the GFS and ECMWF models through that time. After 48 hours, the

hurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches

the Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of

Matthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to

turn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period.

There is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so

there is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track



1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm

surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and

northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the east

coast of Florida tonight.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel

to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through

South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at

any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track

to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major

hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and

Georgia. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the

hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in

impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast

Georgia and South Carolina.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern

North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center

of Matthew remains offshore.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge

Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for

Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge

Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,

but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of

inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In

addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend

out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding

potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in

Florida and Georgia.