Thursday Forecast

Good Thursday morning everyone!

Meteorologist Ryan Michaels shows the clear skies on radar this morning over NWFL.

It's another quiet morning with mainly clear skies overhead. We're off to a pleasantly warm morning with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s as well. The beaches may be the only spots closer to the upper 70s getting out the door this morning. Otherwise, grab the shades and something comfy to wear once again as it'll be another toasty day.

Sunny skies this morning warm our temperatures up to the 90s once again, with low 90s on the coast to mid 90s inland. Thanks to a light northeasterly flow still during the overnight, we've been able to take out some of the sultry humidity and that'll help with the afternoon heat. Heat indices today may struggle to reach the triple digits, and will likely reside in the upper 90s for most of NWFL thanks to the slight dip in dew points.

We'll see another similar day to today's forecast for Friday, before attention turns to the increasing rain chances for the upcoming weekend and it has to do with the tropics...

Let's talk about it in your Tropical Update...
A trough of low pressure, Invest 95-L, continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Bahamas this morning. This system now has a 70% chance of development in the next 48hrs and an 80% chance over the next 5 days.

However, some models like the Euro have shown a major shift in track to the north and east this morning from prior runs, mirroring a pass through the Bahamas and East Coast of Florida much like Dorian did. Unfortunately, there is still large disagreement among the Euro and GFS, as the American model is still featuring a run at the Gulf of Mexico.

The good news is by the day's end today we should start to see which model output will be correct. If we see a more northerly shift in Invest 95-L's center then we'll be leaning a bit more on the Euro solution. However, if the system remains on a more westerly track today, then we could be looking more at a GFS solution.

This track discrepancy has a big impact on what our weekend will look like in NWFL. If the American model holds true, expect a higher likelihood of rain here in NWFL. But if the Euro model, or a shift more northeast in the track happens, our rain chances may go all the way down to ZERO this weekend!

Bottom Line...
For today, abundant sunshine this morning with a few fair weather clouds in the afternoon. Highs today reach the low 90s on the coast to mid 90s inland with feels like temperatures in the upper 90s. Your 7 Day Forecast keeps us running quiet through Friday with a few more clouds in the skies before better rain chances move in over the weekend as we watch the tropics.

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